Driving By Numbers: The state of Canada's body-on-frame SUV market in 2021

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It appears as though the Ford Bronco is arriving not a moment too early. Want proof?

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In the fourth quarter of 2020, as if to cap off the most bizarre year in generations, Toyota Canada reported the sale of 2,002 4Runners. With more than a decade under its belt, the fifth-generation 4Runner is entirely out of sync with the modern market’s predilections. Besides being ancient, it is also, in the common vernacular, truck-based. That means it’s a body sitting on top of a frame.

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Yet this apparently antiquated vehicle, with its outdated platform and outmoded construction, generated more Canadian sales activity in the final three months of a pandemic year than in the final 24 months of the fourth-gen 4Runner’s tenure.

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It’s not a 4Runner phenomena. Rugged, off-road-capable, truck-based, old-fashioned, body-on-frame sport-utility vehicles were hot tickets heading into the pandemic, hot tickets during the industry’s summer 2020 resurgence, and hot tickets as we slowly (but surely?) exit the worst of COVID-19.

During the first quarter of 2021, in which overall auto sales soared past 2020’s pace by an easily anticipated 16-percent uptick, body-on-frame SUV sales skyrocketed. Sales in the sub-segment shot up 58 percent to more than 13,000 units.

The market is primed for the arrival of another competitor at the somewhat more affordable end of the body-on-frame SUV spectrum, a sector in which the majority of products either compete on behalf of premium brands; or are priced well into the premium sector. Here’s a rundown of Canada’s first-quarter favourites in the traditional SUV arena.

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Jeep Wrangler: 4,519, up 23 percent

“Icon” is too overused a word. Except in the case of all-time classics such as the Porsche 911, Ford Mustang, and, yes, this, the Jeep Wrangler. Some 35 percent of the body-on-frame SUVs sold in Canada in 2021’s first quarter were Wranglers. It’s Canada’s 10th-best-selling SUV/crossover overall. And these 4,519 sales aren’t the Wrangler’s only impact — the platform is donated to the Gladiator for another 1,189 first-quarter sales.

Toyota 4Runner: 2,154, up 54 percent

With 8,230 sales two years ago, 2019 was the 4Runner’s best year ever in Canada. Toyota began 2019 with 17-percent fewer first-quarter sales than the company produced at the start of 2021. In other words, subject to pervasive supply constraints, 2021 is on track to be the 4Runner’s best year ever by a significant margin.

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Chevrolet Suburban/Tahoe: 1,687, up 44 percent

On GM’s GMT T1XX platform, there are six distinct full-size SUVs spread across three brands and two wheelbases. At Chevrolet, the Silverado-based behemoths operate under Tahoe (short) and Suburban (long) nameplates. Two-thirds of the volume is generated by the smaller Tahoe. Far more often than not, these SUVs will be too big for the kind of off-roading in which Wrangler owners can participate out-of-the-box, but there are other benefits to body-on-frame construction. One such benefit is towing, with max capacity reaching 8,400 pounds. Don’t try this in your mother’s Equinox.

GMC Yukon/Yukon XL: 1,655, up 33 percent

Identical in countless ways to their Chevy twins (which sell only marginally more often), the GMC Yukon and Yukon XL are actually the biggest competition for the Tahoe and Suburban. Combined, the GMC and Chevrolet quartet collected 72 percent of Canadian full-size SUV sales in 2021’s first quarter, out-selling the Ford Expedition, Toyota Sequoia, and Nissan Armada by a very healthy margin.

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Ford Expedition: 1,049, up 13 percent

Folded into the Expedition’s 1,049 first-quarter sales tally is volume from two Expedition variants: the conventional Expedition and the long-wheelbase Expedition Max. The body-on-frame Expedition is by no means a direct competitor for the upcoming body-on-frame Bronco, but that won’t stop a modest degree of pricing overlap. Expedition prices start at $63,110 and stretch past $86,000 before options. Before options – of which there are many – a top-spec Bronco Wildtrak sits just under $60,000.

Cadillac Escalade: 678, up 112 percent

The Cadillac Escalade and long-wheelbase Escalade ESV sold more than twice as often in 2021’s first quarter as in the prior-year period. Sales growth is not unanticipated — the market’s supply-constrained rebound reaches most SUV segments. Yet the Escalade’s year-over-year growth is nevertheless tops among top-selling body-on-frame SUVs and sixth in the overarching SUV sector.

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Mercedes-Benz G-Class: 335, up 88 percent

Priced from $154,900, the Geländewagen is easily the most costly vehicle on this list of body-on-frame SUVs. And no, $154,900 is most definitely not the typical out-the-door price for a G-Class. (The G63 starts at $211,900.) Now infinitely more modern than its traditional G-Wagen militarized styling would lead you to believe, Mercedes-Benz’s longest-running SUV nameplate is clearly more suited to a much broader demographic. “Broader demographic” is obviously a relative term.

Lincoln Navigator: 262, up 17 percent

Lincoln’s Navigator beat its crosstown Escalade rival to market at the end of the last century, but the Navigator has typically not been able to measure up to the Escalade’s outrageous sales success. The Expedition-based Navigator is now in its fourth iteration, and presently accounts for under one-fifth of Lincoln’s Canadian volume.

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Infiniti QX80: 257, up 77 percent

Whither the Nissan Armada on which the QX80 is based? The more-affordable Armada’s sales are also climbing fast, more than doubling to 146 in 2021’s first quarter. But at nearly $70,000 for the Armada, the sub-$80K starting point for the QX80 appears downright affordable. This is one corner of the market in which Infiniti’s Japanese rivals – Acura and Lexus – don’t presently measure up. Acura has no rival. Lexus, with the GX and LX, produced a combined total of 232 first-quarter sales in 2021.

Lexus LX570: 140, down 35 percent

Due for a replacement very shortly, the long-running Toyota Land Cruiser-based Lexus LX is now the standard destination for customers in search of a flagship Lexus. Fifteen years ago, Lexus sold one LX for every five LS sedans. Ten years ago, the LS was still outselling the LX, albeit by a narrow margin. Fast forward. In 2021, Toyota Canada moves 12 LX570s for every one copy of the LS sedan.