For young people, owning cars won’t be any easier as society reopens

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Last year,  Driving  wondered whether the pandemic would reverse trends in  car ownership among young people . The story postulated the upending of decades of urban planning because people, understandably, might be too freaked out to travel in close proximity to strangers. And we all thought, “Damn, I’d certainly be freaked out!” But, will they?

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Predicting the future has always been a mug’s game and the following may sound like fence-sitting but, a year and change later, we can’t be sure. We know a lot more now about how COVID-19 behaves, but that’s not making the answers any plainer. There are points to be made that kids will and won’t — as well as should and shouldn’t — become car owners instead of ride-sharers or bus-riders. 

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Last year, we were all still washing the mail before wiping down the mousepad after Zoom cocktails. What nutcase would jump into a car whose steering wheel had been handled just the day before by a complete stranger? So, it was easy to predict the demise of services like Zipcar. But now we know COVID-19 is airborne and all that obsessive wiping of surfaces did was circumvent 2020’s flu season, and make hand-sanitizer producers rich.

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Then again, the new variants are significantly more contagious than COVID Classic, making services like Zipcar more attractive — just open the windows when you get in. And maybe a spritz of hand-sanitizer for good luck. 

However, it also makes popular urban travel modes like ride-sharing and public transit seem more ominous. Worse, many Canadian universities are rejecting mandatory vaccination measures.

Amidst all this confusion, who wouldn’t want their own car? Then again, if your university doesn’t demand vaccinations for access, who could be blamed for wanting to continue learning online and saving some money instead of investing in a new car, or even a used car?

New cars are expensive

For years, car companies were behaving like banks. Borrowing money was cheap — for now, it still is. But all new cars are suddenly so much more expensive .

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Why? Supply chain issues continue to drop spanners in the works of just-in-time production schedules. Dealers are having problems getting product onto their lots. In short, ownership of a new car may be more desirable, but it’s also far more challenging.

Used cars are also expensive

So, just buy used, right? Well, maybe not. You know the expression, gas flows downhill. People who can’t afford to buy new, or those who prefer to buy used, are driving up demand in the used sector. All cars are more expensive right now, even used .

Maintenance and operation fees

Then there’s the cost of maintenance and operation. Even if CERB cheques could’ve put a down payment on a vehicle, they won’t cover insurance. Moreover, inflation is surging everywhere. It usually starts at the gas pump, then has that 360-degree  boulder-in-a-pond effect. Gasoline prices are spiking , driven by the Delta variant.

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And what about your typical summer surges? We’ve seen another record-setting wildfire season up and down the west coast of North America — just inhale and you’ll be reminded. Joe Biden’s meeting with Putin in June did little to assure any of us that hacks into the pipeline supplies are going to cease. All this increases the likeliness of sudden and severe inflation at the pump — the only thing Canadians like to complain about more than weather.

Driver’s licence

It gets more complicated. Let’s say a statistically impressive number of young people  do  want to purchase a vehicle, new or used, they’ll need a licence to operate it. Here in Ontario, it’s  nearly impossible to get a driving test . Almost 400,000 were canceled over the pandemic. That’s not a typo. For a touch of perspective, that number of  canceled tests  equals almost 80 per cent of the entire population of Newfoundland and Labrador — more impressively, it almost doubles the populations of Prince Edward Island plus all three territories combined. (Police, please watch for young people driving without a licence.)

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Ownership vs. COVID

The following isn’t statistically valid, but I asked some recent college grads, aged 20 to 27, whether: a) they trust public transit right now, b) they own a car and c) they’re considering buying a car and if so, what they have their eyes on. Below, read a soupçon of their answers. The closest thing to a trend? Most would like to own a car, kind of, but can’t afford it. And quite frankly, that sounds pretty similar to when we were young.

Regarding ownership:

“I owned a car when I first moved to Toronto back in 2017, but very quickly realized that for the minimal commute I was doing that it financially didn’t make sense to keep it. While in school, I would occasionally have access to a vehicle, but found the parking costs on campus to outweigh the benefit of having the vehicle. – Emily

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“I do own a car, a 2021 civic touring that I split payments with my brother which is the only way I can currently afford a car like that.”  – Jonathan

“Cars I have my eye on down the road: Subaru, VW, Toyota.” – Calum

“I’ve thought about buying a car, but it would not be a wise investment as I am working from home full-time … I wouldn’t break even … right now.” – Emily

Regarding COVID anxiety:

“Since the pandemic started, I can count on two hands the number of times I have taken transit. I have found it too overwhelming to be in a congested space for a lengthy period of time. I have been walking wherever I can manage and for longer trips, I resort to taking an Uber.” – Emily 

 “I am not worried about public transit.” – Calum

 “One of the positives that COVID has brought is the potential long-term change of having a hybrid schedule in our industry. Commuting 2-3 days a week downtown from Vaughan sounds a lot more affordable and practical.” – Jonathan

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Or both of the above:

“Since COVID, the idea of taking public transit has become a bit less desirable. And having your own personal form of transport certainly helps ensure safer travel. That being said, it’s still not to the point where I’d consider buying my own car right now. The cost of ownership is still a huge deterrent for me.” – Andrew

“I don’t currently own a vehicle and I am a little hesitant about taking public transit in the upcoming months. My hope is that people continue to follow the guidelines of mask wearing and social distancing to keep themselves and others safe regardless of their vaccination status.” – Natalia

Final thoughts

Bicycles remain an option, as several recent students including my own daughter pointed out. It’s just that whole  we-live-in-Canada  thing. Unless your address is in Victoria, where the average daily low temperature in January is a lovely five degrees while the average rainfall per year is 176.8cm less than Vancouver, you’re going to need some astronaut-worthy gloves and boots. It’s doable. I used to cycle year-round in Toronto and found it uncomfortably warm to cover my core beyond a decent windbreaker and wicking shirt (you are your own furnace), it was the extremities that needed protection.

The good news if you’re considering commuting by bike? You probably already have some decent face coverings.