Motor Mouth: How Ford’s F-150 plots the future of electric vehicles

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2035 seems to be the year of reckoning. The European Union just announced that sales of all internal-combustion engines — including plug-in hybrids! — will end 14 years hence. Canada made a similar announcement — though possibly not as Draconian with regards to PHEVs — two weeks ago. And while other countries, notably Norway, have different timelines for the elimination of fossil fuels, the fact that California has also set 2035 as its cut-off date for internal combustion makes it quasi-official. If the politicians hold true to their word — yes, I know how silly that sounds — that will be the year the hammer will come down on piston power.

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Or is it?  

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Come 2035, either one of two scenarios is likely to emerge. The first — and most optimistic — is that the ban on ICE will be largely unnecessary, most consumers having already jumped on the emissions-free bandwagon, leaving only a few coal-rolling laggards to be forced into ZEV submission. If said stragglers are few enough — and sufficiently alienated — there will be little political penalty to forcing them into an EV they may not want.

If, on the other hand, January 1, 2035 arrives and a significant number of consumers — say a third or more — still show a strong preference for internal combustion, governments’ choices become decidedly more difficult. It would be very hard, for instance, for any political party — especially one that might not be as convinced as our current federal Liberals are as to the efficacy of EVs — to tell 33.3 per cent of the electorate they simply have no choice but to buy electric. Tailpipe emissions, the environment, and electric vehicles are one of the most polarizing political missions of our times. Trying to force a significant number of consumers — all eligible voters, I remind you — to buy a vehicle they don’t want would be political suicide.

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So, which will it be? Will Canadian — make that North American — consumers go meekly into that good night? Or will we rage against the dying of the spark plug? The answer to that question, I think, could lie with Ford’s new battery-powered F-150 Lightning .  

Now, at least part of this logic should be obvious. Pickup sales show no sign of abating, trucks accounting for some 3.3 million units out of the 16.2 million or so vehicles that were sold in the U.S. and Canada last year. Indeed, the three top-selling nameplates in North America are all pickups. But, while Chevy’s Silverado and Stellantis’ Ram sell well, it was once again the F-150 that stood atop the podium , 2020 marking the 39 ^th year in a row that it was the best-selling vehicle in North America.  

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The reason for its popularity is simple: It’s everyman’s car. Rich or poor, white- or blue-collar, and even male or female, the F-150 transcends demographics. There is no niche the F-150 has not invaded. Yes, Tesla’s truck generates more headlines, but for every self-righteous dilettante who wants the Jetsons -styled Cybertruck to announce their emissions consciousness, manifold will be those who will reject it for the very same reason.

Rivian, Lordstown, and GMC’s Hummer may prove less polarizing, but as much as the pickup segment has moved significantly upscale in recent years, US$100,000 pickups with questionable range will nonetheless prove a tough sell. The Lightning meanwhile, may be no bargain compared with the 34 large that a base F-150 runs, but, at $68,000, the well-equipped XLT version can at least pretend to be (semi-)affordable.

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Trying to force a significant number of consumers to buy a vehicle they don’t want would be political suicide

More importantly, a significant portion of those trucks serve at least an occasionally utilitarian purpose, be it towing horse or boat and/or hauling Sea-Doos, dirt bikes, and the occasional dresser in their beds. Now, exact figures for pragmatic purposefulness are hard to come by… and, yes, a significant number of pickups are being bought by urbanites whose most difficult haulage will be the cases of Chablis they’re stocking up on for the upcoming Labour Day bash. But the lowest estimation I have seen is that somewhere around a third of all those millions of F-150 owners move something large enough frequently enough to warrant owning a pickup truck. For its part, Ford of Canada says 86 per cent of all F-150s sold in the Great White North are equipped with a trailer towing package, so there appears to be at least significant intent to use the F-150 as God and Henry Ford intended.

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And it is these traditionalists whom I think will be the bellwethers of our conversion to battery power — the canaries in the coal mine, if you will. No matter whether the range ratings cited are as phantasmagorical as Tesla’s or as seemingly realistic as Porsche’s, towing a heavy trailer behind a pickup — especially along a high-speed divided highway — has to take a huge toll on range. Ford is claiming 483 kilometres of range for its top-of-the-line Lightning. If Range Finder’s evaluation of the Mustang Mach-E is any indication, that means an unloaded electric F-150 might manage 350 klicks on the highway, 400 if a strictly legal 100 km/h is maintained. But speed and heavy loads drain batteries much more quickly than they would in, say, a diesel-fuelled dually. Pulling a 7,000-pound boat along the Interstate will probably see that range drop to as little as 250 km. In other words, every two hours or so, they’re going to have to stop.  

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Now, legion are the EV owners who say they don’t mind the long stops during the infrequent road trips they take. Indeed, they seem to wear the perseverance as some red badge of environmentalism. More interesting, however, will be the reaction of these long-haulers looking for the Lightning to serve the same purposes as the gas-powered F-150 they just traded in. Will they accept the limitations that are endemic to battery power? Or perhaps, three years hence, when the newness of zero-emissions trucking has worn off, will they determine that batteries just don’t cut it? Will they, after they have found out its towing-induced range limitations — not to mention the relatively difficulty of accessing some charging stations with a big ol’ Boston Whaler back there — recommend their fellow truck owners to go electric? Or caution them that the Lightning just isn’t ready for prime time?

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There’s little doubt the F-150 Lightning will be a hit right out of the gate. Ford’s own research says that up to 40 per cent of F-150 owners are open to Lightning ownership. That’s an impressive number of potential EV sales, considering the F-150 will likely hit 800,000 sales this year in the States alone.

More telling, though, will be how many of those new EVers re-up for a second electrified F-150. That, I suspect, will be the bellwether that determines whether we reach those 2035 ambitions. I have no idea whether a 2035 phase-out of internal combustion is feasible. I do think, however, that the Lightning’s success over the next five years will be a leading indicator.