Motor Mouth: Is Quebec’s plan to ban gas-powered cars just a (tail)pipe dream?

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That Quebec is a distinct society — the exact words are actually “that the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada” — should, by now, be accepted doctrine. That the Meech Lake Accord actually failed to constitutionalize said uniqueness doesn’t change the fact there is a lot more than a simple language barrier that separates — oops, did I use a bad word there? — La Belle Province from the rest of Canada. Its politics are noticeably more left-wing, its religiosity more grassroots and, unless you’ve never read this column before, you know that its automotive market is unlike any other in the nation. More diverse (almost half of Mitsubishi Canada’s Mirage sales are east of the Ottawa River) and more price sensitive (ditto), the Quebec automotive market is also greener than the rest of our fair country.

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Decidedly greener. Small cars abound (see, yet again, the little three-cylinder Mitsu), scooters are extremely popular and, more importantly in these revolutionary times, Quebec has become North America’s Norway-like poster province for electric vehicles. Six per cent of all the cars sold in Quebec last year were plug-ins, and the province can already boast more than 66,000 ZEVs registered for the road, more by far than any other province.

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Motor Mouth: Is Quebec’s plan to ban gas-powered cars just a (tail)pipe dream? Back to video

It’s the result of some of the most aggressive regulations and subsidization in North America. Besides massive incentives — the province throws as much as $8,000 at EVs on top of the $5,000 the federal government subsidizes their purchase — Quebec has emulated California’s ZEV mandates that punish automakers for not selling enough plug-ins. Like I said, its goal is aggressive — some might say oppressive — calling for at least 22 per cent of all car sales to be ZEV by 2025.

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Those regulations just got even more draconian, the province’s Plan pour une Economie Verte — a “green economy” — signature headline calling for a complete ban on the sales of new vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. That, for reference, places it on par with California’s latest pronouncements (ICEs banned by 2035) and ahead of the Liberal government’s expected 2040 ban, but behind Boris Johnson’s completely unrealistic 2030 deadline for the UK.

But, while Quebec’s announcement succeeded in creating big headlines — it even (temporarily) interrupted the U.S.’s all-Trump-all-the-time news cycle — it also raises far more questions than it answered. For instance, while a complete ban on internal combustion seems pretty darned definite, the province’s dictums still list plug-in hybrids as zero-emissions vehicles. Now, PHEVs may be dramatically cleaner than conventional gas-powered cars, but by definition there is still an internal-combustion engine (ICE) under the hood. Whether they will still qualify in 2035 hasn’t been specified. Benoit Charette, the province’s environment minister, told La Presse that plug-ins would continue to be counted as zero emisions vehicles, but there’s nothing in the green plan that confirms it. Nonetheless, if the current policy holds, there will still be some new (semi) ICE-powered cars sold after 2035.

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Even if the regulations are such that dealerships will be limited to selling battery-only new cars — hydrogen power gets but token notice in all Quebec dictums because, well, Hydro Quebec — the Coalition Avenir Quebec goes out of its way to ensure that second-hand cars are exempt from the ZEV dictate. Considering that it currently takes some 15 years for 50 per cent of once-new cars to disappear from our roads — gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs last even longer with 65 per cent still registered after 15 years — internal combustion might not disappear from Quebec roads until well past 2050. Indeed, despite the seeming finality to the statement “the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles will be forbidden,” could La Belle Province have to resort to banning the sale of gasoline to truly rid itself entirely of tailpipe emissions?

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And what of collateral damage? As it is currently written, industrial and commercial vehicles will be exempt from the no-combustion dictate. Could we see an entire industry built up around finding consumer-friendly loopholes big enough for diesel-powered dualies to drive through? What about ICE-powered products bought in provinces that lack a similar mandate? Will they be allowed to be registered in Quebec (so far, the wording of the ban only specifies vehicles “sold” within its borders)? Will there be fines on long-term visitors driving brand-new, foreign-registered 2036 coal-burners?

More importantly — at least to one who will probably retire to the Laurentians and hopes to be riding until he’s, oh say, 124 — what will become of motorcycles? If the conversion to battery power by 2035 is problematic for cars — sourcing enough lithium for batteries, a truly complete and comprehensive charging infrastructure, etc. — it’s almost impossible for motorcycles. Getting more range out of a car is relatively simple: just add more batteries. Even if that makes your Tesla Model S as tubby as a GMC Sierra, it’s at least feasible.

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Unfortunately, motorcycles have a lot less real estate to swallow lithium-ions, and the best highway range for current battery-powered motorcycles is about 125 kilometres. Lacking the ability to add more cells, the only solution is greater efficiency. But, while the price of batteries has dropped dramatically of late, there has not been an attendant increase in efficiency. It will be a long time before we see bikes with realistic highway ranges greater than 250 kilometres. How dramatically will that affect bike sales?

And lest you think motorcycling insignificant, know that Quebec is Canada’s most bike-friendly province, the 20,695 units sold in 2019 accounted for more than a third of Canada’s 60,079 overall retail sales. Oh, and just for some perspective, only 65 electric motorcycles — out of some 210,000 currently licenced for the road — have been registered in Quebec since 2012, and this despite a generous $2,000 subsidy. Also, what will happen to ATVs and snowmobiles, both extremely popular with les Habitants for deep woods exploring, jerry cans strapped aboard for refuelling in the boonies?

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Perhaps the biggest question of all is, how big a financial commitment are we looking at?

More importantly — this time for everyone — where will all the money for this grand revolution come from? Premier François Legault has already allocated $6.7 billion for his “green economy” over the next five years, much, if not most, of it aimed at the converting the province’s fleet to hydro power. But even the most EV-friendly analysts think this will fall dramatically short of what’s needed, the CBC noting that even though Quebec cut its emissions by 10 million tons between 2007 and 2014, “between 2014 and 2017 (the latest figures available), emissions actually increased slightly.” Even the CAQ’s own estimations seem to say it won’t be enough, Legault admitting that even that $6.7 billion will generate less than half of the projected 29 megatonne reduction in CO ₂ emissions promised by 2030. The remainder will rely on the federal government stepping up with even more funding. So perhaps the biggest question of all is…

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How big a financial commitment are we looking at?

Well, the plan is to have 1.5 million EVs on Quebec’s roads by 2030. Even if we stretch the current numbers to the 100,000 the last green plan called for, that’s 1.4 million EVs needing homes in the next 10 years. If they all cost the province $8,000 in subsidies, that’s a little more than $11 billion, pretty much eating all the funds allocated to this five-year green plan and the next. Even the federal government’s five grand booster is going to add up to serious moolah — as much as $7 billion if all the province’s EVs qualify for the full pop.

Even that might not be enough. In a recent Radio-Canada interview, Pierre Moreau, former Liberal transportation minister in Quebec’s Charest administration, posited that even his province’s generous $13,000 subsidies — again, $8,000 from Quebec and another five grand from the feds — along with the penalties to manufacturers might not be enough to hit the green plan’s ambition targets. Instead, said Moreau, “bonus-malus” taxes may also have to be that further penalize consumers for buying a gasoline-fuelled vehicle.

It makes for quite the leap for reasoning. On one side, the province says it is only following the will of the people for greener motoring. On the other, the only way it can get people to convert to battery power is to generously subvent the purchase of electric vehicles, penalize any manufacturer who dares not produce enough EVs and, if Moreau is to be believed, punish consumers who refuse to see the light. For a revolution that is being billed as inevitable, that seems like a whole lot of coercion.