How long does Tesla take to launch a car? We plot the timelines across 5 models

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Most of us are guilty of it from time to time: we declare our intentions to begin some sort of project – basement renos, new fitness regime, chasing that wino off the lawn – only to drag our heels and end up starting the task long after the initial announcement.

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Car companies are not immune to this phenomenon; witness the cadre of products from different manufacturers that have taken several epochs to appear in showrooms after their initial announcement (ahem, Bronco , ahem).

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How long does Tesla take to launch a car? We plot the timelines across 5 models Back to video

But today we’re talking Tesla. In a new interview with Joe Rogan (no, not that interview in which he was criticized for puffing on a doobie) main man Elon Musk elaborated on details of an electric van that might be forthcoming from the EV powerhouse. Musk said in conversation that, due to the van’s design, it might actually make sense to equip it with solar panels. This is not the first time Musk has talked about a Tesla van, but it is the first time he’s described it in any detail beyond tweeting about it in passing.

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This got us thinking: what’s the general gestation period of a Tesla vehicle? After all, multiple machines have been announced by the company in the past few years that haven’t yet seen the light of production — Roadster 2.0, Semi, Cybertruck, and now this Van. Can we learn anything from the company’s past and use it to potentially predict when we might see these new rigs?

Alert readers will recall the company got its start with the original Roadster , an EV convertible that turned the concept of battery-powered driving on its ear by proving that all-electric vehicles don’t have to look like an eighth grader’s unfinished science project. That car officially debuted in July 2006 and saw production in March 2008. Less than two years from first light to final assembly isn’t bad for a brand-new automaker.

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Next out of the production gate was the Model S . The very fact this car still looks good more than a decade after it debuted in March 2009 is a testament to how far ahead of the curve it was both in terms of styling and EV propulsion. Walking the calendar back a few months, the car was technically announced in June 2008 with first customer deliveries officially happening four years later in June 2012. This car had much higher production targets than the OG Roadster, partially explaining the extra incubation time.

Tesla’s first crossover-style machine, the Model X , appeared thereafter. It was announced a couple of months prior to the Model S going on sale in 2012. It took about three-and-a-half years from that initial announcement for the falcon-doored people mover to land in the hands of rabid excited Tesla fans. However, the company wisely didn’t (officially) show a finished example until they were almost ready to build the thing.

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This brings us neatly to the Model 3 , Tesla’s long-promised EV for the masses. How long, you ask? Well, according to our research, mention of an ‘affordable’ Tesla that didn’t require an extra mortgage to purchase was bandied about so far back as 2006 during the original Roadster hubbub. The actual car showed up at an event ten years later, with first production and first deliveries happening in July 2017.

The massive amount of time between initial discussion and actual vehicles plying our nation’s highways can be partially explained by the fact that Tesla had not yet attempted mass assembly of cars on this scale, though it must be said that some production delays were self-inflicted. Also, producing a relatively affordable EV was always one of Musk’s stated goals, so the 2006 date should be viewed through that lens.

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Your author tried the same approach on his spouse when talking about as-yet unfinished completion of an extra bathroom in their home. It didn’t work.

Rounding out the current roster of Tesla vehicles on sale right now is the Model Y . The intent to build such a rig was announced way back in 2015 but a debut of the actual vehicle didn’t occur until March 2019. However, once all the cards were in place, the move to production was relatively swift with the first customer deliveries occurring about a year later. This timeline was aided by the fact that the Model Y shares many components with the Model 3, helping to speed along production planning. Imagine you’re in the kitchen baking chocolate chip cookies but your family suddenly requests a plate of raisin cookies. Making the switch isn’t too hard because with the main ingredients already assembled, it’s an easy task to swap out the bag of sugary treats chips for a bag of wrinkled raisins. An oversimplification perhaps, but the point stands.

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But what about the Tesla products that have been announced but remain in limbo? By our count, there are a quartet of EVs that have either been unveiled at an event or talked about at length by Musk but not yet available for purchase. Both the Roadster 2.0 and Semi debuted in person waaayyy back in 2017, with the company gleefully taking quarter-million dollar deposits on the former with no firm production date in sight.

Similarly, the will-it-really-look-like-that Cybertruck first appeared in the flesh at a November 2019 soirée in California, during which a window strength demonstration went awry, resulting in shattered glass and embarrassed faces. Well over 200,000 customers ponied up refundable deposits on the thing (at a minimum of $100 a pop), meaning Tesla may have raked in over US$20 million in what amounts to an interest-free loan. If you think at least some of that money didn’t go towards keeping the lights on at various Tesla facilities during cash crunches, we’ve some oceanfront property in Moose Jaw to sell you.

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So what can we learn? Well, save for low-volume machines like the Roadster 2.0 and Semi truck, Tesla has steadily improved its track record in terms of time elapsed between official introduction of a car and actual production of the same. Given this metric, we should have seen a Cybertruck a couple of months ago but – as with all things 2020 – pandemic-related challenges surely stretched that measure. Your author feels, based on past performance, top-tier (read: most profitable) versions of the truck will likely show up in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Whether it’ll actually look like the vehicle shown in November 2019 remains to be seen.

LISTEN: How EVs have saved Canada’s automotive manufacturing sector.

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